RSS FANTASY
It is, as exercises go, fairly futile.
Doing a Top 200 ranking for the 2009 fantasy football season … in February? Make no mistake about it, I am all about futile pursuits. See “Hathaway, Anne,” my obsession. But I initially resisted when I was asked to do this by the ESPN Fantasy editorial team.
It’ll be without rookies, I said. It’ll be done before free agency, before all the coaching changes are in place, before we know who Terrell Owens will be driving crazy this year. Will my rankings really be any help to anyone, I asked. That’s never stopped you before, they shot back.
Good point. So here’s a first look at my Top 200 rankings. But first, some things to note:
I did this with an ESPN standard 10-team league in mind. That means one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, a tight end and a flex player (one running back, wide receiver or tight end). It is standard scoring, which means no points per reception and four points for a touchdown pass.
I have done this with my own personal biases in mind. At various points, I’ll interject with reasons for why I have ranked certain players where. But in general:
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Seriously, what good are kickers (even my top-ranked kicker, Rob Bironas) in fantasy anyway?
• I believe you try to have just one kicker and one defense on a team roster at all times. When it’s a bye week, you drop them and pick up a replacement. If you have a particularly good defense, you can drop someone else to grab a bye-week defense, but certainly when drafting, you should draft just one kicker and one defense. As a result, I have ranked only 10 of each in the Top 200.
• In just about every draft I’ve done, my last two picks have been a team defense and a kicker, in that order. Read last year’s Draft Day Manifesto, or the one I’ll write for this upcoming season for more background, but the difference between team defenses is statistically insignificant. And that’s even if you could predict the order of finish, which you can’t. Where’d last year’s consensus No. 1 defense, the Chargers, finish? Exactly. (With Shawne Merriman expected back, I did rank them below, however). Anyway, my bottom 20 consists of defenses and then kickers, because that is how I would draft.
• I would draft two quarterbacks and two tight ends in a league this shallow, and otherwise fill up on running backs and wide receivers. And so I have ranked 20 total quarterbacks and 20 total tight ends.
• If you have ever read my work before, you know my theory on kickers. (If you haven’t, here’s the short version: They’re useless, and they’re all the same.) When I was doing this, one of the suits here at ESPN, Raphael Poplock, wandered into my office. I let him rank the kickers. And yeah, it took him less than a minute — and that’s still more time than I would have spent on it. Seriously, throw a dart.
And with that, away we go:
1. Michael Turner
2. Adrian Peterson: Here’s my thinking on Turner being ranked No. 1 over Peterson. First, in ESPN standard scoring, Turner outscored Peterson by 32 points in 2008. So it not only can happen, it has happened. Second, Chester Taylor started vulturing scores in the second half from Peterson, who once again faded down the stretch (not as badly as he faded in the second half of his rookie season, but he had 11 fantasy points or fewer in three of the six games from Week 11 to Week 16). Plus, the Vikings still don’t have a competent quarterback to keep teams from stacking the line. In Turner’s case, the development of Matt Ryan and the emergence of Michael Jenkins as a decent No. 2 receiver behind Roddy White mean teams must respect the pass, giving Turner more room to run. And finally, Turner has been in the league for five years, Peterson only two … and yet Peterson has 20 more career touches.
3. Brian Westbrook
4. Matt Forte
5. Maurice Jones-Drew: Now that Fred Taylor is gone and the Jaguars have an offseason to get the offensive line healthy, the sky’s the limit for MJD.
6. Clinton Portis
7. Chris Johnson
8. Steven Jackson
9. Brandon Jacobs
Donald Miralle/Getty Images
LaDainian Tomlinson will come back strong in ‘09.
10. LaDainian Tomlinson: I’m betting that LT gets healthy, and that the Chargers acquire a viable blocking fullback and upgrade their offensive line in the offseason. LaDainian is a prideful guy, and he has a long offseason to think about his struggles this past season.
11. Marion Barber: He’d be higher if not for Felix Jones and Tashard Choice being so effective.
12. Drew Brees
13. DeAngelo Williams: He’s by far the most debated early-round option, and perhaps the toughest to rank. I put him here because I don’t see him getting 20 touchdowns again this year, especially with a healthy Jonathan Stewart (who I like a lot, as you’ll see below) around.
14. Steve Slaton
15. Thomas Jones
16. Frank Gore
17. Randy Moss: I’m assuming Tom Brady is healthy here. Also note that questions about Kurt Warner coming back and Anquan Boldin’s contract status was enough to drop Larry Fitzgerald to No. 3 among receivers.
18. Calvin Johnson
19. Tom Brady
20. Larry Fitzgerald
21. Andre Johnson
22. Ryan Grant
23. Marshawn Lynch
24. Kurt Warner
25. Steve Smith
26. Roddy White
27. Reggie Wayne
28. Joseph Addai
29. Pierre Thomas: This is me saying I don’t care if Reggie Bush is healthy or not.
30. Peyton Manning
31. Aaron Rodgers
32. Marques Colston
33. Terrell Owens
34. Kevin Smith
35. Anquan Boldin: Again, this is a result of the questions about Warner’s status for next season.
36. Tony Romo
37. Jonathan Stewart
38. Greg Jennings
39. Brandon Marshall
40. Reggie Bush
41. Wes Welker
42. Jay Cutler
43. Philip Rivers
44. Le’Ron McClain: Clearly, McClain is the Ravens runner I’m choosing.
45. Ronnie Brown
46. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
47. Antonio Bryant
48. Tony Gonzalez
49. Willie Parker
50. Sammy Morris: Allow me to officially declare Laurence Maroney dead. From a fantasy perspective, anyway. Save your hate mail for the regular season.
51. Willis McGahee: But I don’t think McGahee’s done by any means.
52. Jason Witten
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Surprised by Vincent Jackson’s rank? Just look at his numbers.
53. Vincent Jackson: Look at his numbers before you scratch your head (or anything else, for that matter).
54. Dwayne Bowe
55. Santonio Holmes
56. Plaxico Burress
57. Darren McFadden: I think he gets healthy, gets the starting gig and shows why he was such a high draft pick.
58. Santana Moss
59. Larry Johnson: Wherever he winds up, it won’t involve him being an every-down back. At best, he’s in for a timeshare. Or if he stays in KC, he’s in for blocking for Tyler Thigpen.
60. LenDale White
61. Eddie Royal
62. DeSean Jackson
63. Braylon Edwards: Surprised at how far he dropped? Get it? Dropped? Whatever. Some of these jokes are just for me.
64. Bernard Berrian
65. Hines Ward
66. Dallas Clark
67. Antonio Gates
68. Kevin Walter: See note about “Jackson, Vincent.”
69. Donald Driver
70. Donovan McNabb
71. Tyler Thigpen
72. Laveranues Coles
73. Jamal Lewis
74. Derrick Mason
75. Matt Ryan
76. Kellen Winslow
77. David Garrard: He was better down the stretch than you think.
78. Earnest Graham
79. Lance Moore
80. Ted Ginn Jr.
81. Matt Schaub
82. Ben Roethlisberger
83. Lee Evans
84. Cedric Benson
85. Edgerrin James: Obviously I’m buyin’ “regular-season Edge,” not “postseason Edge.”
86. Dominic Rhodes
87. Warrick Dunn
88. Owen Daniels
89. Joe Flacco
90. Chester Taylor
91. Justin Fargas
92. Jerricho Cotchery
93. Steve Breaston: And if Boldin goes elsewhere, Breaston goes way up.
94. Visanthe Shiancoe: I have nothing to hide here.
95. Carson Palmer
96. Matt Hasselbeck
97. Derrick Ward
98. Deion Branch
99. Matt Jones
100. Maurice Morris
101. Bobby Engram
102. Torry Holt
103. Justin Gage
104. Kevin Curtis
105. Chris Chambers
106. Chris Henry: And assuming Houshmandzadeh goes elsewhere, Henry also will go up.
107. Ricky Williams
108. Felix Jones
109. Eli Manning
110. Chris Cooley
111. Darren Sproles: With this ranking, I’m assuming he remains a backup, in San Diego or somewhere else.
112. Leon Washington
113. Chad Pennington
114. Julius Jones
115. Anthony Gonzalez
116. Johnnie Lee Higgins
117. Peyton Hillis: Pick a Denver running back. No, seriously, pick one. I thought he was the most effective one, but without Mike Shanahan as Denver’s coach, who knows. Also, health will still play a big factor with all the Broncos backs.
118. Roy E. Williams
119. John Carlson
120. Tony Scheffler
121. Sidney Rice
122. Devin Hester
123. Antwaan Randle El
124. Domenik Hixon
125. Jamaal Charles
126. Michael Bush: This ranking is about playing time, not talent. As long as he is still third on the Raiders’ depth chart, he belongs down here.
127. Selvin Young
128. Kyle Orton: When healthy, he was among the hottest quarterbacks in the league.
129. Mewelde Moore
130. Dustin Keller
131. Isaac Bruce
132. Amani Toomer
133. Tim Hightower
134. Rashard Mendenhall
135. Laurence Maroney
136. J.J. Arrington
137. Chad Johnson
138. Zach Miller
139. Muhsin Muhammad
140. Greg Olsen
141. Greg Camarillo
142. Jerious Norwood
143. Donnie Avery
144. Fred Jackson
145. Michael Pittman
146. Davone Bess
147. Nate Washington
148. Devery Henderson
149. Sinorice Moss
150. Justin McCareins
151. Patrick Crayton: If Owens doesn’t return to Dallas, this number goes up, as does Roy Williams’.
152. Anthony Fasano
153. Marvin Harrison
154. Kolby Smith
155. Ryan Torain
156. Ahmad Bradshaw
157. Kevin Boss
158. Donald Lee
159. Tashard Choice
160. Heath Miller
161. Dennis Northcutt
Greg Trott/Getty Images
Malcolm Kelly: One of Matthew’s early sleeper picks.
162. Malcolm Kelly: Bit of a sleeper surprise here considering he was injured as a rookie. But the Redskins absolutely love him, and at this point you’re just drafting upside anyway. He has a lot of that.
163. Mark Clayton
164. Chaz Schilens
165. Jerome Harrison
166. Deuce McAllister
167. Josh Morgan
168. Brandon Lloyd
169. James Jones
170. Ray Rice
171. Jason Hill
172. DeShaun Foster
173. Bo Scaife
174. Ryan Moats: The answer to the question, “If Steve Slaton goes down, then who …”?
175. Ladell Betts
176. Donte’ Stallworth
177. Jabar Gaffney
178. Brent Celek
179. David Martin
180. Todd Heap
181. Tennessee defense/special teams
182. Pittsburgh defense/special teams
183. Baltimore defense/special teams
184. Philadelphia defense/special teams
185. Tampa Bay defense/special teams
186. Chicago defense/special teams
187. New York Giants defense/special teams
188. Minnesota defense/special teams
189. San Diego defense/special teams
190. New York Jets defense/special teams
191. Rob Bironas
192. Nate Kaeding
193. Jason Elam
194. David Akers
195. Nick Folk
196. Stephen Gostkowski
197. Mason Crosby
198. Ryan Longwell
199. Josh Brown
200. Jeff Reed
