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2009 DRAFT (RD.1)

  1. Detroit Lions: Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia
    FEB. 26 UPDATE: Despite everything that happened at the 2009 NFL Combine, I still believe the pick is Matt Stafford. Detroit fans are afraid that he’ll bust, but it’s not like Stafford is coming out of a spread offense like Alex Smith or Vince Young. And he doesn’t have personality flaws like Ryan Leaf or perhaps JaMarcus Russell. As long as Detroit protects Stafford – an offensive tackle must be taken at No. 20 for that to happen – he won’t bust.

    The only other possibility here is Jason Smith. NOT AARON CURRY. For more on why Curry most likely will not be the pick, check out my Chiefs write-up below.

    FEB. 17 UPDATE: Like it or not, the pick will be Matt Stafford, barring a trade for Matt Cassel. I’ve received countless e-mails from Lions fans telling me why their team won’t take Stafford. In honor of this, I created a thread with all of those e-mails and my responses to them. So, if you haven’t seen it yet, check out the Lions Fans Don’t Want Matt Stafford Thread.

    Also, if you register and you don’t get a confirmation e-mail, shoot me an e-mail and I’ll manually register you so you can participate in the forums.

    JAN. 28 UPDATE: Matt McGuire said it best on one of his radio appearances this weekend: “Pre-order your Stafford jerseys, Lions fans.” With no consensus No. 1 tackle and a new regime in town, this will be a quarterback.

    How about trading down? I’ve received a few e-mails about this, but it’s not happening. First of all, it takes way too many resources to move up to the top selection. And second, given the economy we’re in, no owner wants to pay an obscene amount of money to an unproven player.

    DEC. 25 UPDATE: Despite numerous e-mails from Lions fans insisting that the correct course of action would be drafting an offensive tackle, I’m still calling for a quarterback. Detroit needs a face for their franchise. They can’t get a quarterback with Dallas’ selection, but they’ll be able to grab a tackle with that pick.

    Also, Lions owner William Darth Clay Sidious Ford doesn’t really care about winning. He just wants money. What brings in more money than a rookie signal caller? Everyone in Detroit will be lining up to buy the new Matt Stafford jersey, especially if he appears to be as promising as Matt Ryan.

    PREVIOUS UPDATES: I’m not saying a left tackle isn’t a possibility, but like the Falcons last year, the Lions need a face for their franchise. Right now, that face is Matt Millen, even though he was fired a few months ago. When people think about the Detroit franchise, they think about how Millen helped ruin it.

    The Lions can get a quality tackle with Dallas’ choice or in the No. 33 slot. Assuming most of the junior quarterbacks remain in school, they won’t have the chance to secure a top-rated signal-caller in the 2009 NFL Draft.

  2. St. Louis Rams: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
    One of the few reasons I mocked Michael Crabtree to the Rams was because I believed there was no elite left tackle worth taking No. 2 overall. Left tackle and a No. 1 wideout are both obvious needs for the Rams, and I repeatedly stated that this selection would come down to Crabtree or Eugene Monroe.

    Well, an elite left tackle emerged out of the group. Jason Smith, already high on many rankings, dazzled everyone at the 2009 NFL Scouting Combine. Some media members have already begun speculating that Smith is a candidate to go first overall. If the Lions trade for Matt Cassel or feel as though they can’t sign a deal with Stafford, Smith would be the top choice.

    No mention of Aaron Curry here. Well, except for that sentence. Oops. Anyway, I’ve seen some 2009 NFL Mock Drafts project Aaron Curry here. Hey, anything can happen on Draft Day, but if you think there’s a remote chance that Curry goes No. 2 overall, please check out the Top-Three NFL Draft Pick Trends since 1998 to see why this is very unlikely.

    Pick change; previously Eugene Monroe, OT

  3. Kansas City Chiefs: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
    I’ve debated this pick… in my head (thanks, Mike Crabtree) countless times, and I talked it over with Matt McGuire. We both agree that this selection comes down to Matt Sanchez and Aaron Curry.

    If Kansas City believes Sanchez can be a franchise quarterback, he’ll be the pick. New regimes typically mean new quarterbacks. Kansas City’s regime is completely new – the franchise has a new head coach, a new GM and even a fairly new owner. We’ve seen in recent history that a new front office usually selects “their guy” with their first draft choice.

    Unfortunately, we won’t know how the Chiefs feel about Sanchez until Draft Day. We can only speculate.

    Something I can do, however, is build a case against Aaron Curry. Yesterday, I published a short article on the History of Linebackers in the NFL Draft. As you’ll see, players who compared to Curry weren’t even drafted in the top five. This is like the Top-Three NFL Draft Pick Trends, but delves further into the linebacker position.

    I’m not saying Curry can’t be the pick; we’ve just seen only two linebackers crack the top five in the past 10 years, and only one in the top three. Linebacker is not a premium position. Quarterback is. That’s why it all depends on how Scott Pioli and Todd Haley feel about Sanchez.

  4. Seattle Seahawks: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
    I’ve had a left tackle here for a while, but only because I projected the Rams to draft Michael Crabtree. If Crabtree is available, the Seahawks won’t hesitate. Don’t worry about the foot injury; the Panthers still drafted Jonathan Stewart No. 13 overall last year, and he turned out just fine.

    Matt Hasselbeck needs a dominant receiver to throw to; not 90210 characters named Courtney Taylor, Jordan Kent, Logan Payne and Valerie Malone. Despite Crabtree’s meager measurements and unwillingness to run at the Combine, I really doubt he falls past Seattle. If he does, it’ll be because the Seahawks fell in love with Jason Smith.

  5. Cleveland Browns: Aaron Curry, ILB, Wake Forest
    It looks like this is Aaron Curry’s floor. With some projecting the top linebacker in this class to go in the top three – I don’t think this will happen, based on what I said in the Rams and Chiefs write-ups – Cleveland will be thrilled if Curry falls to them.

    The Browns desperately need help at inside linebacker, given that the ineffective Andra Davis is a free agent. If, for some reason, Curry is unavailable here, the Browns will likely choose Brian Orakpo.

  6. Cincinnati Bengals: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
    I have trouble seeing this selection as anything but an offensive tackle. The oft-injured Levi Jones, Cincinnati’s current left tackle, hasn’t played well in two years and probably will be cut this spring. Stacy Andrews, meanwhile, is a free agent coming off ACL and MCL tears.

    With Jason Smith rising up draft boards, the Bengals will be happy to select Eugene Monroe here. Monroe, an elite pass-protector, will pair well with Collins, who played extremely well down the stretch of the 2008 season. Collins should be good on either side.

    Pick change; previously Jason Smith, OT

  7. Oakland Raiders: Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas
    The Raiders could go a number of directions here, though I would cross Jeremy Maclin off the list. Al Davis hasn’t drafted a receiver in the first round since 1988, and Maclin didn’t even run a fast 40. Some are talking about Darrius Heyward-Bey as an option, but this is way too early for an unproductive collegiate wideout.

    This should come down to B.J. Raji and Brian Orakpo; run defense and a lacking pass rush were both issues for the Raiders in 2008.

    It appears as though Oakland is shopping Derrick Burgess. Burgess had just 3.5 sacks last year because of a triceps injury, but he turns 31 in August and is entering his contract year. If Undead Al manages to deal the right end, he’ll probably take Brian Orakpo.

    We all know that Undead Al loves speed and athleticism. Well, Orakpo had one of the quickest 40s (4.70) for defensive ends at the 2009 NFL Scouting Combine. Orakpo also had a 39.5-inch vertical, so he may already be considered a “great player” in the eyes of the Raiders’ owner.

    Pick change; previously Michael Oher, OT

  8. Jacksonville Jaguars: Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
    I’d love to give Jacksonville a left tackle here, but the premier players at that position are all off the board. That means the poor Jaguars have to “settle” for Vontae Davis.

    Jacksonville was burnt by last year’s awful Drayton Florence signing. Florence was recently cut, indicating that the team will be hunting for a starting corner in free agency or the top few rounds of the 2009 NFL Draft.

    With Jenkins’ stock slipping a bit, Davis may have established himself as the top corner in this class.

    Pick change; previously Malcolm Jenkins, CB

  9. Green Bay Packers: B.J. Raji, NT, Boston College
    The Packers are moving Ryan Pickett over to nose tackle, but that doesn’t mean that they’ll pass on B.J. Raji. Pickett is untested in the 3-4, and he turns 30 in October. Plus, it’s his contract year. Even if Pickett thrives at the nose and gets a new deal with the team, Raji proved at Boston College that he can move around on the defensive line in the 3-4 system.

    Raji is the best player available here, though Everette Brown could be an option.

  10. San Francisco 49ers: Everette Brown, DE/OLB, Florida State
    Manny Lawson has been a bust in terms of his ability to get to the quarterback. While Parys Haralson evolved into a dependable pass-rusher, Lawson has compiled six career sacks in 32 games. Terrible.

    It’s time for the 49ers to move on in terms of finding a dynamic sack artist. Everette Brown would be a nice solution; he fits the scheme and he finished the year with 21.5 TFL and 13.5 sacks.

  11. Buffalo Bills: Brian Cushing, OLB, USC
    I really wanted to give the Bills a defensive end here. They finished with 24 sacks on the year, and no player had more than four. Aaron Schobel missed most of the season, but the Bills had similar problems even when he was in the lineup.

    Unfortunately, Brian Orakpo and Everette Brown are both off the board. If that’s the case, the Bills will have a few options, including Brian Cushing.

    Cushing performed well at the 2009 NFL Scouting Combine. In fact, I’ve seen him get mocked to the Packers at No. 9. The bottom line is that Cushing is an excellent football player who will help the Bills at outside linebacker. Angelo Crowell, a free agent with chronic knee problems, probably won’t be back in Buffalo. The Bills can’t possibly go another year with Keith Ellison in the starting lineup, so Cushing would be a major upgrade.

    Pick change; previously Brian Orakpo, DE

  12. Denver Broncos: Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
    Josh McDaniels was just hired as the head coach, and he brought on Mike Nolan as his defensive coordinator. Nolan will implement his 3-4 defense, meaning the Broncos will be busy scouring for the right personnel to fit that scheme in the next two drafts.

    The Broncos have a number of options here. The best choice could be Tyson Jackson, who could immediately help out a front seven that could neither get to the quarterback nor stop the run. Jackson would be a perfect fit on Denver’s new three-man line.

    Pick change; previously Rey Maualuga, ILB

  13. Washington Redskins: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
    The Redskins really need help on their offensive line, given the problems they have at guard and right tackle. Despite what happened at the Combine, Andre Smith is a very strong option here.

    I personally wouldn’t touch Smith because of his work-ethic issues, but we have to remember who Washington’s owner is. Daniel Snyder makes free agent and draft moves as if he were playing fantasy football. Remember, he brought in DeAngelo Hall last season, despite the fact that Hall was kicked off the Raiders because of his attitude. It doesn’t get any worse than that.

    I feel as though Snyder will find Smith’s talent level too appealing to pass up. Combine that with the fact that right tackle is an enormous need for the Redskins, and you have what seems to be a draft pick that makes a lot of sense.

    Pick change; previously Peria Jerry, DT

  14. New Orleans Saints: Malcolm Jenkins, FS/CB, Ohio State
    Malcolm Jenkins’ stock has fallen a bit. He ran a mediocre 40 (4.55) and looked very sloppy in the combine drills. Said Deion Sanders of Jenkins, “He’s killing himself.”

    However, I can’t see New Orleans passing on Jenkins, given the team’s problems in the secondary. Jenkins can play both free safety and corner. The Saints could definitely use him at the former position; I really think their fans would start having nose bleeds and seizures if Josh Bullocks and Kevin Kaesviharn were allowed to start for another year.

    Pick change; previously Brian Cushing, OLB

  15. Houston Texans: Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech
    The Texans have drafted a lineman with their first selection each of the past four years (one OT, two DTs, one DE). Why buck that trend if they need someone to complement Mario Williams?

    The knock on Michael Johnson is that his production hasn’t matched his skill level and that he tends to take plays off. While it’s true that Johnson never even cracked the starting lineup until his senior year, he made the most of his final season at Georgia Tech, registering 17.5 TFL and nine sacks.

    A tendency to take plays off may set off a red flag with some fans, but NFL coaches tend to be cocky and slightly arrogant. I guarantee most of them believe they can turn Johnson around.

    One coach, Jon Gruden, called Johnson a “Julius Peppers clone” during the 2009 NFL Scouting Combine. I think that sort of upside is too difficult to pass up in the middle of the first round.

    Pick change; previously Tyson Jackson, DE

  16. San Diego Chargers: Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
    Michael Oher’s pass-blocking inconsistencies and poor showing at the 2009 NFL Scouting Combine have cost him. But I doubt he falls below No. 16. Lucky for the Chargers because they’re getting a really good offensive lineman.

    The Chargers have a huge hole at right tackle; current starter Jeromey Clary gave up 6.5 sacks and was whistled for six penalties in 2008. Oher would be a great upgrade over Clary.

    Pick change; previously Andre Smith, OT

  17. New York Jets: Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State
    This definitely isn’t New York’s greatest need, but Chris Wells could be too good to pass up with the top two corners off the board. Thomas Jones just had a great year, but the fact remains that he turns 31 in August.
  18. Chicago Bears: Larry English, DE, Northern Illinois
    Chicago needs help at defensive end. The team had just 28 sacks on the year, and no one had more than six.

    Larry English measured in at 255 at the 2009 NFL Scouting Combine – not 274 as NFL.com reported – so while he may be considered a bit undersized for most 4-3 defenses, he’d fit perfectly in Chicago’s scheme.

    The Bears also really need help at receiver, and with mega-talents like Jeremy Maclin and Percy Harvin on the board, choosing one of them is a possibility. But I doubt Chicago does that. The Bears will upgrade their perennial strengths – the offensive line and defense – before anything else.

    Pick change; previously Michael Johnson, DE

  19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
    In my previous mock updates, I stated that the Buccaneers had greater needs than a running back. Well, that’s not the case in the wake of Warrick Dunn being released.

    With Dunn gone, there’s even more uncertainty surrounding Tampa Bay’s current running back stable. Can Cadillac Williams ever stay healthy? And how can Earnest Graham possibly reemerge as a top-10 running back if he never was one in the first place?

    If Moreno isn’t here, the Buccaneers will look at Jeremy Maclin, Tyson Jackson, Peria Jerry and Josh Freeman as options, though it’s realistic that all four might be off the board.

  20. Detroit Lions: William Beatty, OT, Connecticut
    Is this a bit of a reach? Before the 2009 NFL Scouting Combine, it was. I feel as though William Beatty established himself as a first-round left tackle. But even if he didn’t improve his stock, teams now are tending to reach for offensive tacklles. See Sam Baker and Duane Brown as prime examples.

    The Lions surrendered 52 sacks in 2008. Drafting a quarterback first overall and then not providing him with a top-notch left tackle would be foolish. Beatty’s presence would allow Jeff Backus to slide inside.

  21. Philadelphia Eagles: Eben Britton, OT, Arizona
    Alex Mack will be considered. Then again, so will every large offensive lineman in this class.

    It’s no secret that Andy Reid loves to surround himself with people as big as he is. The smallest player on Philadelphia’s offensive line weighs 320. Eben Britton is about 310, but once he gets done eating a few dinners with Big Red, he’ll be at the desired 320.

  22. Minnesota Vikings: D.J. Moore, CB, Vanderbilt
    Cedric Griffin has had an up-and-down season, and Minnesota simply needs more consistency in its defensive backfield. D.J. Moore would offer an upgrade at corner and as a return specialist. That’s a pretty nice two-for-one deal.

    Jamon Meredith and Alex Mack were also considered here.

    Pick change; previously Vontae Davis, CB

  23. New England Patriots: Rey Maualuga, ILB, USC
    Though Bill Belichick added a young linebacker to his roster last April, he’ll have to keep acquiring them. The Patriots are really old and thin in their linebacking corps.

    In my previous update, I had Rey Maualuga going to the Broncos at No. 12. Maualuga may have torn his hamstring and was also criticized for some off-the-field stuff. Both of those things could drop him down.

    Pick change; previously Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB

  24. Atlanta Falcons: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
    Could you imagine how lethal Atlanta’s offense would be if the team somehow acquired a dynamic tight end? Matt Ryan would be unstoppable.

    With Brandon Pettigrew going as high as No. 11 in some mocks, the Falcons will be very fortunate if they manage to get the top-rated tight end down here.

  25. Miami Dolphins: Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State
    Looking at Bill Parcells’ previous 10 first-round picks, four were spent on linebackers. Two were used on corners. The other four were on an offensive tackle, defensive end, wide receiver and quarterback.

    Based on the Tuna’s history, this will be a linebacker. Joey Porter really slowed down toward the end of the 2008 campaign (one sack in his final four games) and the Dolphins could use another body to get to the quarterback; excluding Porter, no Miami player had more than five sacks. Even worse, the Dolphins failed to register a single sack against Baltimore in their first-round playoff loss. Aaron Maybin can help in this department.

    Speaking of Maybin, what was up with the 40 times at the 2009 NFL Scouting Combine? First of all, some of the unofficial times seemed slow. But then, all of the official times were a tenth slower than the unofficial ones! Mike Mayock even commented about the slow times:

    “I’m going to tell you something. The guys that I sit with at the end of the 40-yard dash. I guarantee you, they trust their own handhelds, and the handhelds were quicker for whatever reason this year.”

    I don’t know if the equipment was malfunctioning or if the guy in charge of the official times was on LSD, but something was definitely wrong. In fact, I created a thread about it called: Mitch King Ran Faster Than…

    Pick change; previously Larry English, DE/OLB

  26. Baltimore Ravens: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
    Mark Clayton has started playing really well down the stretch, but with Derrick Mason, who just turned 35, a year away from hitting free agency, it’s time the Ravens begin developing their next No. 1 receiver for Joe Flacco.
  27. Indianapolis Colts: Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina
    Peria Jerry is a strong option, but the Colts will look at a receiver to replace the recently released Marvin Harrison, which would allow them to keep Anthony Gonzalez in the slot. Hakeem Nicks’ stock is hot, and it appears as though he could be the third wideout off the board.
  28. Philadelphia Eagles: Sean Smith, S/CB, Utah
    Brian Dawkins is expected to be back for the 2009 season, but that’s more than likely his final year in Philadelphia. The Eagles need to find his successor.

    With William Moore falling, Sean Smith has emerged as the top safety in this class. He measured in at 6-4, 214, and managed to run a 4.53. Furthermore, Mike Mayock compared him to NFL Hall of Famer Mel Blount. Not bad.

    Duke Robinson was the pick here in my previous update and he remains a strong candidate.

    Pick change; previously Duke Robinson, G

  29. New York Giants: Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss
    With solid talents like James Laurinaitis, William Moore and Clint Sintim slipping, the Giants have plenty of options.

    You can also put Peria Jerry in that group. In my previous update, I had Jerry going to the Redskins at No. 13, so this would be a steal. Jerry would give the Giants another pass-rushing option, with Fred Robbins, 32 in March, on his way out soon.

    Wide receiver is also an option, but this draft is so deep at the position that the Giants can take someone like Kenny Britt in the second round.

    Pick change; previously James Laurinaitis, ILB

  30. Tennessee Titans: Percy Harvin, WR, Florida
    Yeah, I know… the Titans don’t draft receivers. Hey, miracles can happen, and maybe they’ll be embarrassed because everyone made fun of them for not taking one last year.

    In all seriousness, Tennessee has proven in the past that they look for skill-position players with great 40 times. Percy Harvin would qualify for that.

  31. Arizona Cardinals: Alex Mack, C, California
    I had LeSean McCoy here in my previous update, but he measured in at 198 pounds in Indianapolis. Though he apparently had the flu, he needs a very strong Pro Day to bounce back into Round 1.

    With McCoy slipping just a bit, the Cardinals can simply turn to addressing the center position. As a college senior, Alex Mack would have been an upgrade of Lyle Sendlein last year.
    Pick change; previously LeSean McCoy, RB

  32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Duke Robinson, G, Oklahoma
    The Steelers need upgrades all over their offensive line, including the guard position. Chris Kemoeatu struggled in 2008, surrendering 7.5 sacks and getting whistled for six penalties. Meanwhile, Kendall Simmons, 30 in March, suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon in 2008.

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